Championship Championship February 21, 2026
Watford

Watford

20
FT
Derby

Derby

We predicted

0-1 28% confidence
View full match details Saturday, February 21 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 0-1
|
Actual 2–0

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 28%
Team Context
Watford
Rank#12
Played32
Points45
PPG1.41
Goal Diff3
D L D L D
Derby
6#Rank
32Played
48Points
1.5PPG
8Goal Diff
W L W D W
Most Likely Scores
0-1
14.7%
6.79
1-1
13.2%
7.57
0-0
12.2%
8.18
1-0
11.0%
9.12
Both Teams To Score
YES 41% · 2.41
NO 59% · 1.71
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Watford 27% · 3.65
Draw 29% · 3.39
Derby 43% · 2.32
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
35%
65%
Over 35% · 2.85 Under 65% · 1.54
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
62%
38%
Over 62% · 1.61 Under 38% · 2.64
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
16%
84%
Over 16% · 6.19 Under 84% · 1.19

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Watford Watford
D L D L D
Derby Derby
W L W D W

Key Stats Comparison

Watford
Stat
Derby
0.9
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.2
#12
League Pos.
#6
45 pts
Points
48 pts
1.41
Points / Game
1.5
+3
Goal Diff.
+8

Head to Head

Full H2H record
5 W
0 D
0 W
Watford
Draw
Derby
15 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Coventry Coventry
41 25 9 7 +42 84
2
Ipswich Ipswich
39 20 12 7 +29 72
3
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
41 20 12 9 +21 72
4
Millwall Millwall
41 21 9 11 +9 72
5
Hull City Hull City
41 20 8 13 +5 68
6
Southampton Southampton
40 18 12 10 +19 66
7
Wrexham Wrexham
41 17 13 11 +5 64
8
Derby Derby A
41 18 9 14 +9 63
9
Norwich Norwich
41 17 7 17 +7 58
10
Watford Watford H
41 14 15 12 +3 57
11
Bristol City Bristol City
41 16 9 16 +1 57
12
QPR QPR
41 16 9 16 -5 57
13
Stoke City Stoke City
41 15 9 17 +3 54
14
Preston Preston
41 13 15 13 -4 54
15
Swansea Swansea
41 15 9 17 -5 54
16
Birmingham Birmingham
41 14 11 16 -3 53
17
Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd
41 15 6 20 -1 51
18
Charlton Charlton
41 12 13 16 -11 49
19
Blackburn Blackburn
41 12 11 18 -12 47
20
West Brom West Brom
41 11 12 18 -14 45
21
Portsmouth Portsmouth
40 10 12 18 -17 42
22
Leicester Leicester
41 11 14 16 -9 41
23
Oxford United Oxford United
41 9 14 18 -15 41
24
Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday
41 1 10 30 -57 -5

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record