Serie A Serie A February 12, 2026
Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo

20
FT
Gremio

Gremio

We predicted

Sao Paulo 4+ 24% confidence
View full match details Thursday, February 12 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted Sao Paulo 4+
|
Actual 2–0

We predicted the correct result direction (home), though fewer than 4 goals were scored.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 24%
Team Context
Sao Paulo
Rank#8
Played38
Points51
PPG1.34
Goal Diff-4
L W L W L
Gremio
9#Rank
38Played
49Points
1.29PPG
-3Goal Diff
W L W L W
Most Likely Scores
Sao Paulo 4+
11.0%
1-1
10.8%
9.29
1-0
10.0%
9.96
2-1
9.9%
10.11
Both Teams To Score
YES 55% · 1.81
NO 45% · 2.24
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Sao Paulo 55% · 1.81
Draw 23% · 4.38
Gremio 22% · 4.55
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
56%
44%
Over 56% · 1.8 Under 44% · 2.25
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
79%
21%
Over 79% · 1.27 Under 21% · 4.68
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
33%
67%
Over 33% · 3.02 Under 67% · 1.49

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
L W L W L
Gremio Gremio
W L W L W

Key Stats Comparison

Sao Paulo
Stat
Gremio
1.84
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.07
#8
League Pos.
#9
51 pts
Points
49 pts
1.34
Points / Game
1.29
-4
Goal Diff.
-3

Head to Head

Full H2H record
3 W
0 D
2 W
Sao Paulo
Draw
Gremio
11 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Palmeiras Palmeiras
8 6 1 1 +9 19
2
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo H
8 5 1 2 +5 16
3
Fluminense Fluminense
8 5 1 2 +4 16
4
Flamengo Flamengo
7 4 2 1 +8 14
5
Bahia Bahia
7 4 2 1 +2 14
6
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
7 4 1 2 +3 13
7
Coritiba Coritiba
8 4 1 3 +1 13
8
Gremio Gremio A
8 3 2 3 +1 11
9
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
8 3 2 3 +0 11
10
Vitoria Vitoria
7 3 1 3 -2 10
11
Corinthians Corinthians
8 2 4 2 +0 10
12
Internacional Internacional
8 2 2 4 -2 8
13
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
8 2 2 4 -3 8
14
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
8 2 2 4 -4 8
15
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
7 1 4 2 -2 7
16
Santos Santos
8 1 4 3 -3 7
17
Botafogo Botafogo
6 2 0 4 -2 6
18
Mirassol Mirassol
7 1 3 3 -2 6
19
remo remo
8 1 3 4 -5 6
20
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
8 0 4 4 -8 4

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record