First League
March 23, 2026
Rodina Moskva
5–2
FT
Chayka
We predicted
Rodina Moskva 4+
47% confidence
View full match details
Monday, March 23 2026
Prediction vs. Reality
Predicted
Rodina Moskva 4+
|
Actual
5–2
Our model correctly predicted the outcome — Rodina Moskva 4+ goals was spot on.
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
47%
Team Context
Rodina Moskva
Rank#3
Played24
Points43
PPG1.79
Goal Diff15
D
W
W
D
D
Chayka
17#Rank
24Played
16Points
0.67PPG
-27Goal Diff
D
W
L
D
L
Most Likely Scores
Rodina Moskva 4+
18.4%
2-0
11.6%
8.61
1-0
10.3%
9.73
2-1
9.7%
10.27
Both Teams To Score
YES
51% · 1.97
NO
49% · 2.03
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Rodina Moskva
60% · 1.68
Draw
29% · 3.46
Chayka
12% · 8.69
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
60%
40%
Over 60% · 1.68
Under 40% · 2.47
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
81%
19%
Over 81% · 1.23
Under 19% · 5.36
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
37%
63%
Over 37% · 2.71
Under 63% · 1.59
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Rodina Moskva
D
W
W
D
D
Chayka
D
W
L
D
L
Key Stats Comparison
Rodina Moskva
Stat
Chayka
2.26
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.84
#3
League Pos.
#17
43 pts
Points
16 pts
1.79
Points / Game
0.67
+15
Goal Diff.
-27
Head to Head
Full H2H record2 W
2 D
1 W
Rodina Moskva
Draw
Chayka
16
total goals
5
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Fakel
|
27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | +21 | 59 |
| 2 |
Rodina Moskva
H
|
27 | 14 | 10 | 3 | +22 | 52 |
| 3 |
Ural
|
27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | +14 | 48 |
| 4 |
Rotor Volgograd
|
27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | +13 | 42 |
| 5 |
Spartak Kostroma
|
27 | 10 | 11 | 6 | +6 | 41 |
| 6 |
KAMAZ
|
27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | +13 | 39 |
| 7 |
Chelyabinsk
|
27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | +6 | 38 |
| 8 |
FK Neftekhimik
|
27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | -1 | 35 |
| 9 |
Arsenal Tula
|
27 | 8 | 11 | 8 | +4 | 35 |
| 10 |
Ska-khabarovsk
|
27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | -6 | 34 |
| 11 |
Enisey
|
27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 |
Torpedo Moskva
|
26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 33 |
| 13 |
Shinnik Yaroslavl
|
27 | 7 | 12 | 8 | -1 | 33 |
| 14 |
Volga Ulyanovsk
|
27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -9 | 31 |
| 15 |
Chernomorets
|
27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 29 |
| 16 |
FC UFA
|
26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 26 |
| 17 |
Chayka
A
|
27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -34 | 19 |
| 18 |
FK Sokol Saratov
|
27 | 2 | 10 | 15 | -23 | 16 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.