Primeira Liga Primeira Liga February 16, 2026
Rio Ave

Rio Ave

12
FT
Moreirense

Moreirense

We predicted

1-1 26% confidence
View full match details Monday, February 16 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-1
|
Actual 1–2

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 26%
Team Context
Rio Ave
Rank#15
Played21
Points20
PPG0.95
Goal Diff-19
L L L L W
Moreirense
9#Rank
21Played
30Points
1.43PPG
-2Goal Diff
L L W L W
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.6%
8.62
1-2
9.2%
10.87
0-1
9.1%
10.94
2-1
7.4%
13.59
Both Teams To Score
YES 57% · 1.75
NO 43% · 2.33
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Rio Ave 31% · 3.27
Draw 25% · 4.05
Moreirense 45% · 2.24
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
54%
46%
Over 54% · 1.84 Under 46% · 2.19
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
78%
22%
Over 78% · 1.29 Under 22% · 4.5
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
32%
68%
Over 32% · 3.13 Under 68% · 1.47

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Rio Ave Rio Ave
L L L L W
Moreirense Moreirense
L L W L W

Key Stats Comparison

Rio Ave
Stat
Moreirense
1.27
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.59
#15
League Pos.
#9
20 pts
Points
30 pts
0.95
Points / Game
1.43
-19
Goal Diff.
-2

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
27 23 3 1 +43 72
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
26 20 5 1 +53 65
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
26 13 7 6 +26 46
5
Famalicao Famalicao
27 13 6 8 +11 45
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
27 11 9 7 +11 42
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Moreirense Moreirense A
27 10 5 12 -8 35
9
Guimaraes Guimaraes
27 9 5 13 -13 32
10
Rio Ave Rio Ave H
27 7 9 11 -18 30
11
Alverca Alverca
27 7 8 12 -18 29
12
Arouca Arouca
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
27 7 7 13 -7 28
14
Estrela Estrela
27 6 10 11 -12 28
15
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
16
Nacional Nacional
27 5 7 15 -10 22
17
Tondela Tondela
26 4 8 14 -20 20
18
AVS AVS
27 1 8 18 -40 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record