Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 April 4, 2026
Ponferradina

Ponferradina

41
FT
Mérida AD

Mérida AD

We predicted

1-0 36% confidence
View full match details Saturday, April 4 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 4–1

We predicted the correct result direction (home win), though the exact score differed.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 36%
Team Context
Ponferradina
Rank#6
Played30
Points44
PPG1.47
Goal Diff7
D W D L W
Mérida AD
7#Rank
30Played
44Points
1.47PPG
0Goal Diff
W D L D D
Most Likely Scores
1-0
13.6%
7.34
1-1
12.5%
7.98
2-0
9.8%
10.21
0-0
9.5%
10.54
Both Teams To Score
YES 46% · 2.18
NO 54% · 1.85
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Ponferradina 47% · 2.11
Draw 34% · 2.93
Mérida AD 18% · 5.41
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
42%
58%
Over 42% · 2.39 Under 58% · 1.72
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
68%
32%
Over 68% · 1.47 Under 32% · 3.14
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
21%
79%
Over 21% · 4.73 Under 79% · 1.27

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Ponferradina Ponferradina
D W D L W
Mérida AD Mérida AD
W D L D D

Key Stats Comparison

Ponferradina
Stat
Mérida AD
1.44
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.92
#6
League Pos.
#7
44 pts
Points
44 pts
1.47
Points / Game
1.47
+7
Goal Diff.
+0

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Tenerife Tenerife
31 19 8 4 +33 65
2
Celta de Vigo II Celta de Vigo II
31 15 9 7 +5 54
3
Ponferradina Ponferradina H
31 13 8 10 +10 47
4
Barakaldo Barakaldo
31 12 11 8 +8 47
5
Pontevedra Pontevedra
30 11 13 6 +13 46
6
Zamora Zamora
30 12 10 8 +6 46
7
Real Madrid II Real Madrid II
31 13 7 11 +5 46
8
Lugo Lugo
30 11 12 7 +1 45
9
Athletic Club II Athletic Club II
31 12 8 11 -2 44
10
Mérida AD Mérida AD A
31 12 8 11 -3 44
11
Racing Ferrol Racing Ferrol
31 12 6 13 -1 42
12
Unionistas de Salamanca Unionistas de Salamanca
30 11 8 11 +1 41
13
Arenas Getxo Arenas Getxo
29 11 5 13 -6 38
14
CF Talavera CF Talavera
31 9 8 14 -8 35
15
Guadalajara Guadalajara
31 9 8 14 -11 35
16
Ourense CF Ourense CF
30 8 10 12 -2 34
17
Real Avilés Real Avilés
30 9 7 14 -9 34
18
Cacereño Cacereño
31 6 13 12 -12 31
19
Osasuna II Osasuna II
30 6 9 15 -15 27
20
Arenteiro Arenteiro
30 6 8 16 -13 26

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record