Primeira Liga Primeira Liga April 4, 2026
Nacional

Nacional

20
FT
Estrela

Estrela

We predicted

1-0 36% confidence
View full match details Saturday, April 4 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 2–0

We predicted the correct result direction (home win), though the exact score differed.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 36%
Team Context
Nacional
Rank#15
Played25
Points22
PPG0.88
Goal Diff-8
D L L L D
Estrela
12#Rank
25Played
25Points
1.0PPG
-15Goal Diff
D D L L W
Most Likely Scores
1-0
13.7%
7.31
2-0
11.5%
8.73
1-1
11.4%
8.79
2-1
9.5%
10.49
Both Teams To Score
YES 46% · 2.18
NO 54% · 1.85
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Nacional 38% · 2.6
Draw 33% · 3.08
Estrela 29% · 3.44
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
46%
54%
Over 46% · 2.19 Under 54% · 1.84
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
71%
29%
Over 71% · 1.4 Under 29% · 3.49
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
24%
76%
Over 24% · 4.12 Under 76% · 1.32

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Nacional Nacional
D L L L D
Estrela Estrela
D D L L W

Key Stats Comparison

Nacional
Stat
Estrela
1.67
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.83
#15
League Pos.
#12
22 pts
Points
25 pts
0.88
Points / Game
1.0
-8
Goal Diff.
-15

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela A
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional H
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record