Primeira Liga Primeira Liga March 21, 2026
Moreirense

Moreirense

01
FT
Arouca

Arouca

We predicted

1-0 37% confidence
View full match details Saturday, March 21 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 0–1

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 37%
Team Context
Moreirense
Rank#7
Played25
Points35
PPG1.4
Goal Diff-4
D D L W L
Arouca
11#Rank
25Played
26Points
1.04PPG
-21Goal Diff
L L W L W
Most Likely Scores
1-0
14.3%
6.99
1-1
12.5%
8.03
2-0
10.3%
9.75
0-0
10.0%
10.04
Both Teams To Score
YES 44% · 2.26
NO 56% · 1.8
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Moreirense 48% · 2.08
Draw 34% · 2.93
Arouca 18% · 5.65
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
41%
59%
Over 41% · 2.47 Under 59% · 1.68
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
67%
33%
Over 67% · 1.49 Under 33% · 3.04
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
20%
80%
Over 20% · 4.96 Under 80% · 1.25

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Moreirense Moreirense
D D L W L
Arouca Arouca
L L W L W

Key Stats Comparison

Moreirense
Stat
Arouca
1.44
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.87
#7
League Pos.
#11
35 pts
Points
26 pts
1.4
Points / Game
1.04
-4
Goal Diff.
-21

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
26 22 3 1 +42 69
2
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
3
Sporting CP Sporting CP
25 19 5 1 +50 62
4
SC Braga SC Braga
25 13 7 5 +27 46
5
Famalicao Famalicao
27 13 6 8 +11 45
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
27 11 9 7 +11 42
7
Estoril Estoril
26 10 7 9 +5 37
8
Moreirense Moreirense H
27 10 5 12 -8 35
9
Guimaraes Guimaraes
27 9 5 13 -13 32
10
Alverca Alverca
26 7 8 11 -15 29
11
Arouca Arouca A
27 8 5 14 -21 29
12
Santa Clara Santa Clara
27 7 7 13 -7 28
13
Estrela Estrela
27 6 10 11 -12 28
14
Rio Ave Rio Ave
26 6 9 11 -19 27
15
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
16
Nacional Nacional
27 5 7 15 -10 22
17
Tondela Tondela
25 4 7 14 -20 19
18
AVS AVS
26 1 7 18 -40 10

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record