Primeira Liga Primeira Liga February 14, 2026
Guimaraes

Guimaraes

21
FT
Estrela

Estrela

We predicted

1-0 25% confidence
View full match details Saturday, February 14 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 2–1

We predicted the correct result direction (home win), though the exact score differed.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 25%
Team Context
Guimaraes
Rank#9
Played21
Points28
PPG1.33
Goal Diff-7
L W L L W
Estrela
11#Rank
21Played
23Points
1.1PPG
-12Goal Diff
W D L L D
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.9%
7.78
1-1
11.8%
8.51
2-0
10.4%
9.59
2-1
9.5%
10.48
Both Teams To Score
YES 48% · 2.08
NO 52% · 1.93
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Guimaraes 54% · 1.85
Draw 25% · 4.03
Estrela 21% · 4.71
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
47%
53%
Over 47% · 2.15 Under 53% · 1.87
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
72%
28%
Over 72% · 1.39 Under 28% · 3.57
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
25%
75%
Over 25% · 4.01 Under 75% · 1.33

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Guimaraes Guimaraes
L W L L W
Estrela Estrela
W D L L D

Key Stats Comparison

Guimaraes
Stat
Estrela
1.62
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.91
#9
League Pos.
#11
28 pts
Points
23 pts
1.33
Points / Game
1.1
-7
Goal Diff.
-12

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
27 23 3 1 +43 72
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
26 20 5 1 +53 65
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
26 13 7 6 +26 46
5
Famalicao Famalicao
27 13 6 8 +11 45
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
27 11 9 7 +11 42
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Moreirense Moreirense
27 10 5 12 -8 35
9
Guimaraes Guimaraes H
27 9 5 13 -13 32
10
Rio Ave Rio Ave
27 7 9 11 -18 30
11
Alverca Alverca
27 7 8 12 -18 29
12
Arouca Arouca
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
27 7 7 13 -7 28
14
Estrela Estrela A
27 6 10 11 -12 28
15
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
16
Nacional Nacional
27 5 7 15 -10 22
17
Tondela Tondela
26 4 8 14 -20 20
18
AVS AVS
27 1 8 18 -40 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record