Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 March 19, 2026
Derio

Derio

40
FT
Durango

Durango

We predicted

1-0 37% confidence
View full match details Thursday, March 19 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-0
|
Actual 4–0

We predicted the correct result direction (home win), though the exact score differed.

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 37%
Team Context
Derio
Rank#6
Played26
Points43
PPG1.65
Goal Diff10
W W D W W
Durango
9#Rank
26Played
36Points
1.38PPG
5Goal Diff
W L L L W
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.7%
7.87
1-1
11.6%
8.63
2-0
10.5%
9.5
2-1
9.6%
10.41
Both Teams To Score
YES 48% · 2.06
NO 52% · 1.94
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Derio 51% · 1.96
Draw 33% · 3.06
Durango 16% · 6.09
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
47%
53%
Over 47% · 2.11 Under 53% · 1.9
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
73%
27%
Over 73% · 1.38 Under 27% · 3.66
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
26%
74%
Over 26% · 3.9 Under 74% · 1.35

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Derio Derio
W W D W W
Durango Durango
W L L L W

Key Stats Comparison

Derio
Stat
Durango
1.66
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.91
#6
League Pos.
#9
43 pts
Points
36 pts
1.65
Points / Game
1.38
+10
Goal Diff.
+5

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Portugalete Portugalete
27 21 4 2 +41 67
2
Leioa Leioa
26 15 4 7 +14 49
3
Touring Touring
27 13 8 6 +10 47
4
Derio Derio H
27 14 4 9 +14 46
5
Aurrerá Vitoria Aurrerá Vitoria
26 14 5 7 +6 46
6
Lagun Onak Lagun Onak
26 13 4 9 +13 43
7
San Ignacio San Ignacio
26 12 6 8 +8 42
8
Deportivo Alavés III Deportivo Alavés III
26 10 7 9 +10 37
9
Durango Durango A
27 9 9 9 +1 36
10
Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III
26 11 3 12 -5 36
11
Aretxabaleta Aretxabaleta
26 10 5 11 -1 35
12
Pasaia KE Pasaia KE
27 7 7 13 -12 28
13
Santurtzi Santurtzi
26 6 10 10 -10 28
14
Eibar III Eibar III
26 7 6 13 -11 27
15
Añorga Añorga
27 8 3 16 -23 27
16
Zamudio Zamudio
27 7 5 15 -15 26
17
Zarautz Zarautz
27 6 4 17 -28 22
18
Deusto Deusto
26 5 6 15 -13 21

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record