Primeira Liga Primeira Liga February 14, 2026
Casa Pia

Casa Pia

32
FT
Arouca

Arouca

We predicted

0-1 28% confidence
View full match details Saturday, February 14 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 0-1
|
Actual 3–2

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 28%
Team Context
Casa Pia
Rank#15
Played21
Points19
PPG0.9
Goal Diff-17
D W D L L
Arouca
12#Rank
21Played
23Points
1.1PPG
-20Goal Diff
W W L W L
Most Likely Scores
0-1
14.9%
6.7
1-1
13.1%
7.66
0-0
11.9%
8.4
1-0
10.4%
9.62
Both Teams To Score
YES 42% · 2.4
NO 58% · 1.71
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Casa Pia 26% · 3.87
Draw 29% · 3.45
Arouca 45% · 2.22
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
36%
64%
Over 36% · 2.79 Under 64% · 1.56
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
63%
37%
Over 63% · 1.59 Under 37% · 2.69
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
17%
83%
Over 17% · 6.0 Under 83% · 1.2

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Casa Pia Casa Pia
D W D L L
Arouca Arouca
W W L W L

Key Stats Comparison

Casa Pia
Stat
Arouca
0.87
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.25
#15
League Pos.
#12
19 pts
Points
23 pts
0.9
Points / Game
1.1
-17
Goal Diff.
-20

Head to Head

Full H2H record
4 W
1 D
0 W
Casa Pia
Draw
Arouca
12 total goals
5 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
28 23 4 1 +43 73
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
27 21 5 1 +55 68
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
27 14 7 6 +27 49
5
Famalicao Famalicao
28 13 7 8 +11 46
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
28 12 9 7 +14 45
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Guimaraes Guimaraes
28 10 5 13 -8 35
9
Moreirense Moreirense
28 10 5 13 -9 35
10
Alverca Alverca
28 8 8 12 -17 32
11
Rio Ave Rio Ave
28 7 9 12 -19 30
12
Arouca Arouca A
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
28 7 7 14 -9 28
14
Estrela Estrela
28 6 10 12 -14 28
15
Nacional Nacional
28 6 7 15 -8 25
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia H
26 5 9 12 -22 24
17
Tondela Tondela
27 4 8 15 -25 20
18
AVS AVS
28 1 8 19 -43 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record