Premier League Premier League March 4, 2026
Aston Villa

Aston Villa

14
FT
Chelsea

Chelsea

We predicted

1-1 25% confidence
View full match details Wednesday, March 4 2026

Prediction vs. Reality

Predicted 1-1
|
Actual 1–4

This time the result didn't match our prediction — part of the unpredictability that makes football great.

AI Match Predictions

very_low confidence
Prediction Reliability 25%
Team Context
Aston Villa
Rank#4
Played28
Points51
PPG1.82
Goal Diff8
L D W D L
Chelsea
6#Rank
28Played
45Points
1.61PPG
16Goal Diff
L D D W W
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.3%
8.12
0-1
9.6%
10.44
1-0
8.9%
11.27
1-2
8.6%
11.68
Both Teams To Score
YES 54% · 1.84
NO 46% · 2.19
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Aston Villa 25% · 4.03
Draw 34% · 2.98
Chelsea 42% · 2.4
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
50%
50%
Over 50% · 2.0 Under 50% · 2.0
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
75%
25%
Over 75% · 1.34 Under 25% · 3.95
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
28%
72%
Over 28% · 3.57 Under 72% · 1.39

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Aston Villa Aston Villa
L D W D L
Chelsea Chelsea
L D D W W

Key Stats Comparison

Aston Villa
Stat
Chelsea
1.29
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.39
#4
League Pos.
#6
51 pts
Points
45 pts
1.82
Points / Game
1.61
+8
Goal Diff.
+16

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Arsenal Arsenal
31 21 7 3 +39 70
2
Manchester City Manchester City
30 18 7 5 +32 61
3
Manchester United Manchester United
31 15 10 6 +13 55
4
Aston Villa Aston Villa H
31 16 6 9 +5 54
5
Liverpool Liverpool
31 14 7 10 +8 49
6
Chelsea Chelsea A
31 13 9 9 +15 48
7
Brentford Brentford
31 13 7 11 +4 46
8
Everton Everton
31 13 7 11 +2 46
9
Fulham Fulham
31 13 5 13 -1 44
10
Brighton Brighton
31 11 10 10 +4 43
11
Sunderland Sunderland
31 11 10 10 -4 43
12
Newcastle Newcastle
31 12 6 13 -1 42
13
Bournemouth Bournemouth
31 9 15 7 -2 42
14
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace
30 10 9 11 -2 39
15
Leeds Leeds
31 7 12 12 -11 33
16
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
31 8 8 15 -12 32
17
Tottenham Tottenham
31 7 9 15 -10 30
18
West Ham West Ham
31 7 8 16 -21 29
19
Burnley Burnley
31 4 8 19 -28 20
20
Wolves Wolves
31 3 8 20 -30 17

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record