Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
March 29, 2026
Aretxabaleta
2–2
FT
Portugalete
We predicted
1-1
38% confidence
View full match details
Sunday, March 29 2026
Prediction vs. Reality
Predicted
1-1
|
Actual
2–2
We predicted the correct result direction (draw), though the exact score differed.
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
38%
Team Context
Aretxabaleta
Rank#9
Played27
Points38
PPG1.41
Goal Diff0
D
L
L
W
L
Portugalete
1#Rank
27Played
67Points
2.48PPG
41Goal Diff
W
D
W
D
W
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.3%
8.83
1-2
8.8%
11.42
2-1
8.0%
12.44
0-1
8.0%
12.55
Both Teams To Score
YES
60% · 1.68
NO
40% · 2.48
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Aretxabaleta
21% · 4.77
Draw
35% · 2.89
Portugalete
44% · 2.25
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
57%
43%
Over 57% · 1.76
Under 43% · 2.32
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
80%
20%
Over 80% · 1.26
Under 20% · 4.89
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
34%
66%
Over 34% · 2.9
Under 66% · 1.53
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Aretxabaleta
D
L
L
W
L
Portugalete
W
D
W
D
W
Key Stats Comparison
Aretxabaleta
Stat
Portugalete
1.42
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.55
#9
League Pos.
#1
38 pts
Points
67 pts
1.41
Points / Game
2.48
+0
Goal Diff.
+41
Head to Head
Full H2H record0 W
1 D
3 W
Aretxabaleta
Draw
Portugalete
14
total goals
4
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Portugalete
A
|
29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | +42 | 71 |
| 2 |
Leioa
|
29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | +14 | 53 |
| 3 |
Touring
|
29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | +13 | 53 |
| 4 |
Lagun Onak
|
29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | +20 | 52 |
| 5 |
San Ignacio
|
29 | 14 | 7 | 9 | +10 | 48 |
| 6 |
Derio
|
29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +11 | 47 |
| 7 |
Aurrerá Vitoria
|
29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +3 | 47 |
| 8 |
Deportivo Alavés III
|
29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | +13 | 44 |
| 9 |
Real Sociedad III
|
29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 |
Aretxabaleta
H
|
29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 |
Durango
|
29 | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 37 |
| 12 |
Santurtzi
|
29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | -9 | 32 |
| 13 |
Pasaia KE
|
29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | -10 | 32 |
| 14 |
Añorga
|
29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | -22 | 30 |
| 15 |
Zamudio
|
29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -18 | 29 |
| 16 |
Eibar III
|
29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | -15 | 28 |
| 17 |
Zarautz
|
29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | -26 | 26 |
| 18 |
Deusto
|
29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -18 | 21 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.