Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
March 15, 2026
Aretxabaleta
15:30
VS
Derio
Predicted score
Aretxabaleta 4+
35% confidence
View full match details
Sunday, March 15 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
35%
Team Context
Aretxabaleta
Rank#8
Played25
Points35
PPG1.4
Goal Diff0
L
W
L
W
L
Derio
7#Rank
25Played
40Points
1.6PPG
9Goal Diff
W
D
W
W
L
Most Likely Scores
Aretxabaleta 4+
12.3%
1-1
9.9%
10.07
2-1
9.6%
10.44
1-0
7.6%
13.25
Both Teams To Score
YES
63% · 1.6
NO
37% · 2.67
Likely: Both teams score
Match Result
Aretxabaleta
35% · 2.86
Draw
31% · 3.19
Derio
34% · 2.97
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
63%
37%
Over 63% · 1.59
Under 37% · 2.69
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
83%
17%
Over 83% · 1.2
Under 17% · 6.02
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
41%
59%
Over 41% · 2.47
Under 59% · 1.68
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Aretxabaleta
L
W
L
W
L
Derio
W
D
W
W
L
Key Stats Comparison
Aretxabaleta
Stat
Derio
1.93
Exp. Goals (xG)
1.32
#8
League Pos.
#7
35 pts
Points
40 pts
1.4
Points / Game
1.6
+0
Goal Diff.
+9
Head to Head
Full H2H record0 W
0 D
3 W
Aretxabaleta
Draw
Derio
4
total goals
3
meetings
Last 3 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Portugalete
|
25 | 20 | 3 | 2 | +39 | 63 |
| 2 |
Leioa
|
26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | +14 | 49 |
| 3 |
Touring
|
26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | +8 | 44 |
| 4 |
Lagun Onak
|
26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | +13 | 43 |
| 5 |
Aurrerá Vitoria
|
25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | +5 | 44 |
| 6 |
San Ignacio
|
26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 |
Derio
A
|
25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | +9 | 40 |
| 8 |
Deportivo Alavés III
|
26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | +10 | 37 |
| 9 |
Durango
|
26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | +5 | 36 |
| 10 |
Aretxabaleta
H
|
25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | +0 | 35 |
| 11 |
Real Sociedad III
|
25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | -6 | 33 |
| 12 |
Eibar III
|
25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -10 | 27 |
| 13 |
Santurtzi
|
25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 |
Añorga
|
26 | 8 | 3 | 15 | -21 | 27 |
| 15 |
Zamudio
|
26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -13 | 26 |
| 16 |
Pasaia KE
|
26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -15 | 25 |
| 17 |
Zarautz
|
26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | -25 | 22 |
| 18 |
Deusto
|
25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -12 | 21 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.