Primeira Liga
April 12, 2026
Alverca
14:30
VS
Casa Pia
Predicted score
1-0
37% confidence
View full match details
Sunday, April 12 2026
AI Match Predictions
Prediction Reliability
37%
Team Context
Alverca
Rank#10
Played25
Points28
PPG1.12
Goal Diff-15
D
D
D
D
L
Casa Pia
13#Rank
25Played
24Points
0.96PPG
-18Goal Diff
D
D
L
W
D
Most Likely Scores
1-0
14.2%
7.06
2-0
11.8%
8.49
1-1
11.4%
8.8
2-1
9.4%
10.59
Both Teams To Score
YES
45% · 2.24
NO
55% · 1.81
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Alverca
39% · 2.58
Draw
33% · 3.07
Casa Pia
29% · 3.48
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5
2.5 Goals
Under 2.5
45%
55%
Over 45% · 2.24
Under 55% · 1.81
Over 1.5
1.5 Goals
Under 1.5
71%
29%
Over 71% · 1.42
Under 29% · 3.39
Over 3.5
3.5 Goals
Under 3.5
23%
77%
Over 23% · 4.28
Under 77% · 1.3
ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.
Recent Form
Alverca
D
D
D
D
L
Casa Pia
D
D
L
W
D
Key Stats Comparison
Alverca
Stat
Casa Pia
1.66
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.8
#10
League Pos.
#13
28 pts
Points
24 pts
1.12
Points / Game
0.96
-15
Goal Diff.
-18
Head to Head
Full H2H record1 W
0 D
1 W
Alverca
Draw
Casa Pia
7
total goals
2
meetings
Last 2 Meetings
League Context
Full standings| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
28 | 23 | 4 | 1 | +43 | 73 |
| 2 |
Sporting CP
|
27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | +55 | 68 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | +41 | 65 |
| 4 |
SC Braga
|
27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | +27 | 49 |
| 5 |
Famalicao
|
28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 |
GIL Vicente
|
28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | +14 | 45 |
| 7 |
Estoril
|
27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | +4 | 37 |
| 8 |
Guimaraes
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 35 |
| 10 |
Alverca
H
|
28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -17 | 32 |
| 11 |
Rio Ave
|
28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -19 | 30 |
| 12 |
Arouca
|
27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 |
Santa Clara
|
28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 |
Estrela
|
28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -14 | 28 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 25 |
| 16 |
Casa Pia
A
|
26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -22 | 24 |
| 17 |
Tondela
|
27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 |
AVS
|
28 | 1 | 8 | 19 | -43 | 11 |
Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.