Primeira Liga Primeira Liga April 26, 2026
Alverca

Alverca

16:00
VS
Arouca

Arouca

Predicted score

1-0 35% confidence
View full match details Sunday, April 26 2026

AI Match Predictions

low confidence
Prediction Reliability 35%
Team Context
Alverca
Rank#10
Played25
Points28
PPG1.12
Goal Diff-15
D D D D L
Arouca
11#Rank
25Played
26Points
1.04PPG
-21Goal Diff
L L W L W
Most Likely Scores
1-0
12.7%
7.89
1-1
11.5%
8.69
2-0
10.6%
9.43
2-1
9.6%
10.37
Both Teams To Score
YES 48% · 2.06
NO 52% · 1.94
Likely: Clean sheet
Match Result
Alverca 37% · 2.69
Draw 33% · 3.07
Arouca 30% · 3.31
Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 2.5 Goals Under 2.5
48%
52%
Over 48% · 2.1 Under 52% · 1.91
Over 1.5 1.5 Goals Under 1.5
73%
27%
Over 73% · 1.37 Under 27% · 3.69
Over 3.5 3.5 Goals Under 3.5
26%
74%
Over 26% · 3.86 Under 74% · 1.35

ℹ️ Predictions are generated using Poisson distribution models based on recent team form (home/away splits), expected goals, and historical performance. Confidence scores reflect data quality and pattern clarity.

Recent Form

Alverca Alverca
D D D D L
Arouca Arouca
L L W L W

Key Stats Comparison

Alverca
Stat
Arouca
1.67
Exp. Goals (xG)
0.91
#10
League Pos.
#11
28 pts
Points
26 pts
1.12
Points / Game
1.04
-15
Goal Diff.
-21

Head to Head

Full H2H record
0 W
0 D
1 W
Alverca
Draw
Arouca
1 total goals
1 meetings

League Context

Full standings
# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
27 23 3 1 +43 72
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
26 20 5 1 +53 65
3
Benfica Benfica
27 19 8 0 +41 65
4
SC Braga SC Braga
26 13 7 6 +26 46
5
Famalicao Famalicao
27 13 6 8 +11 45
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
27 11 9 7 +11 42
7
Estoril Estoril
27 10 7 10 +4 37
8
Moreirense Moreirense
27 10 5 12 -8 35
9
Guimaraes Guimaraes
27 9 5 13 -13 32
10
Rio Ave Rio Ave
27 7 9 11 -18 30
11
Alverca Alverca H
27 7 8 12 -18 29
12
Arouca Arouca A
27 8 5 14 -21 29
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
27 7 7 13 -7 28
14
Estrela Estrela
27 6 10 11 -12 28
15
Casa Pia Casa Pia
26 5 9 12 -22 24
16
Nacional Nacional
27 5 7 15 -10 22
17
Tondela Tondela
26 4 8 14 -20 20
18
AVS AVS
27 1 8 18 -40 11

Prediction Disclaimer: These predictions are generated using statistical models based on historical form, expected goals, and league standings. They are intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute betting advice. Football is inherently unpredictable — past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

View our prediction accuracy record