Champions League Round of 32 Second Legs: The Reckoning

February 24-25, 2026

Eight teams enter. Eight teams must navigate the mathematics of European knockout football.

First legs delivered unpredictability in abundance. Newcastle demolished Qarabag 6-1. Galatasaray humiliated Juventus 5-2. Bodo/Glimt upset Inter 3-1 at home. Dortmund dominated Atalanta 2-0. Meanwhile, draws and narrow away victories complicated the picture: PSG’s 3-2 away win against Monaco, Real Madrid’s clinical 1-0 away victory at Benfica, Leverkusen’s 2-0 away win against Olympiakos, and Club Brugge’s improbable 3-3 draw with Atlético Madrid in Madrid.

Now comes the second leg. Aggregate scores matter. Tactical adjustments matter. Momentum matters. And in some cases, the first-leg result has already decided the narrative.

ScoresFooty has analyzed all eight second-leg fixtures, incorporating first-leg context, aggregate situations, and statistical prediction models. Here’s what advances, what falls short, and where the data reveals paths that emotion and chaos might still override.

Tuesday, February 24: Four Fixtures, Four Reckonings

Atlético Madrid vs Club Brugge

Civitas Metropolitano, Madrid – 17:45 UTC

First Leg: Club Brugge 3-3 Atlético Madrid (Away)
Aggregate Score: 3-3 (Extra time required if match tied)
ScoresFooty Prediction: Atlético 4+ Goals (Home Dominance)

The Aggregate Reality

Club Brugge didn’t just draw at the Metropolitano—they drew while playing away. This is the kind of result that fundamentally shifts second-leg psychology. Atlético needed a win. They got a draw. A 3-3 aggregate tie means extra time and potentially penalties. Atlético must win by two clear goals (5-3 on aggregate) to guarantee progression and avoid extra time. Club Brugge can advance with a win of any margin, creating interesting tactical dynamics.

The Data Says

Our model predicts Atlético to dominate at home with 4+ goals as most likely. The home crowd’s desperation and the mathematical requirement for a two-goal margin creates urgency that Brugge’s defensive discipline may struggle to contain.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: Atlético’s form collapse (40/100 in first-leg analysis) hasn’t miraculously reversed. They’ve had four days to reset mentally and prepare tactically. Whether that translates to execution is another matter entirely.

What The Numbers Tell Us

Atlético home dominance: Historically strong, but form ratings suggest vulnerability
Brugge defensive resilience: They managed 3 goals and a draw away. Defending deep at home is their strength
Aggregate pressure: A 3-3 tie means extra time; all goals have equal value

The Prediction

Our model favors Atlético’s home dominance, but we hedge with caution. A 2-0 Atlético victory seems most probable. Anything less—1-0, 0-0, 1-1—and extra time becomes likely. Atlético can’t play for a draw when tied on aggregate. They can’t play narrow. They must attack relentlessly, which opens space for Brugge’s counters.

Most Likely Outcome: Atlético 2-0 (Progression on aggregate 5-3)
Alternative Scenario: Brugge upset through disciplined defending + counter-attacking (1-1 or 1-0 Brugge advance)

Newcastle vs Qarabag

St. James’ Park, Newcastle – 20:00 UTC

First Leg: Qarabag 1-6 Newcastle (Away)
Aggregate Score: Newcastle 6-1 Up
ScoresFooty Prediction: Newcastle 4+ Goals

The Match That’s Already Decided

Newcastle demolished Qarabag 6-1. The aggregate score stands at Newcastle 6-1 up. Mathematically, Qarabag would need a 5-0 victory just to tie the aggregate 6-6 (requiring extra time/penalties). A 6-0 victory would give them progression 7-6 on aggregate. This isn’t a second leg—it’s a formality.

What This Means

Newcastle have already advanced. The only narrative tension comes from whether they’ll maintain focus in a dead-rubber fixture. Qarabag’s opportunity lies entirely in redemption—can they salvage some pride and dignity?

The Data Context

Our prediction of Newcastle 4+ goals reflects both team quality and match context. Newcastle won’t have anything to prove. Qarabag’s only incentive is to compete. This often produces paradoxical results: teams with nothing to lose sometimes perform better than favorites with everything to lose.

The Real Question

Will Newcastle maintain intensity, or will complacency set in? St. James’ Park has one of the Premier League’s most passionate atmospheres. If the crowd’s energy sustains Newcastle’s focus, expect another dominant performance. If momentum dissipates, Qarabag might sneak a goal or two.

Most Likely Outcome: Newcastle 3-0 or 4-0 (Comfortable progression)
The Upset: Qarabag find rhythm and score 1-2 goals (Newcastle 2-1 or 1-2 final = 8-2 or 7-3 aggregate, Moral victory for Qarabag, Newcastle still advance)

Bayer Leverkusen vs Olympiakos Piraeus

BayArena, Leverkusen – 20:00 UTC

First Leg: Olympiakos 0-2 Leverkusen (Away)
Aggregate Score: Leverkusen 2-0 Up
ScoresFooty Prediction: 1-1 Draw

The Unexpected Tension

Leverkusen won 2-0 away. They’ve got breathing room. Yet our model predicts a 1-1 draw at home. This might seem counterintuitive—why would the favorite draw at home while holding a 2-0 advantage?

The Data Reveals

Leverkusen’s 80/100 form is solid, not exceptional. Olympiakos’ 3.1 xG average (highest chance creation we analyzed in the first legs) combined with their disciplined defending structure suggests they can compete away, even in defeat.

The 2-0 away victory might actually reduce Leverkusen’s second-leg intensity. They’ve done the hard work. Psychologically, drawing 1-1 at home still advances them 3-1 on aggregate—a comfortable margin.

What Could Happen

If Olympiakos score first, Leverkusen must respond. If the match stays level into the second half, Leverkusen will likely push forward seeking insurance. A 1-1 draw perfectly encapsulates this scenario: Olympiakos proving they belong, Leverkusen advancing without drama.

The Upset Path

Olympiakos’ only path forward requires a 3-0 or greater victory. That’s statistically improbable but not impossible given their chance creation. More likely, they’ll secure a 1-0 or 2-1 victory, lose on aggregate, but exit with credibility intact.

Most Likely Outcome: 1-1 Draw (Leverkusen advance 3-1 on aggregate)
Alternative: Leverkusen 2-0 or 1-0 (Comfortable progression)

Inter Milan vs Bodo/Glimt

San Siro, Milan – 20:00 UTC

First Leg: Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Inter (Away)
Aggregate Score: Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Up
ScoresFooty Prediction: Inter 4+ Goals

The Unfathomable Upset Seeking Reversal

Inter’s perfect form (100/100, five consecutive wins entering the Round of 32) met Bodo/Glimt’s Arctic fortress. Inter lost 3-1 away. Now they must overturn a 2-goal deficit at home.

The Mathematics of Redemption

Inter needs a 3-0 victory to progress on aggregate 4-3. Anything less than 3-0 and they’re eliminated. This is a do-or-die scenario where pressure transforms from advantage into potential paralysis.

The Data Context

Our prediction of Inter 4+ goals reflects the mathematical requirement and the San Siro’s intimidating intensity. Inter’s form hasn’t disappeared—they’ve simply encountered a team that executed perfectly away and defended brilliantly. The Aspmyra Stadium’s conditions and tight pitch neutralized Inter’s possession-based approach.

Now, playing in familiar surroundings, will Inter’s technical quality and intensity break through Bodo/Glimt’s defensive resilience?

The Psychological Battle

Bodo/Glimt arrive knowing they’ve already achieved something extraordinary. An away 3-1 victory against a perfect-form Inter is historic. They can play with freedom—they’ve nothing to lose. Inter, conversely, carry the weight of elimination and expectation.

Sometimes in football, the team with pressure crumbles. Sometimes they respond with fury.

Realistic Outcomes

Inter 3-0 or 4-0: They break through, progress on penalties or narrow aggregate margin
Inter 1-0 or 2-0: Elimination. The Aspmyra’s magic proves stronger than San Siro’s intensity
Bodo 1-1 or 2-1 draw: Bodo advance despite playing away, and Inter’s European dream ends

Most Likely Outcome: Inter 3-1 (Inter progress 4-4 on aggregate via extra time)
Alternative: Inter 3-0 (Inter progress 4-3 on aggregate outright)
More Likely Actually: Inter 0-1 or 1-1 (Bodo eliminate Inter 4-1 or 4-2 on aggregate)

Wednesday, February 25: Four Figures, Four Storylines

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund

Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo – 20:00 UTC (TBD time)

First Leg: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Atalanta (Away)
Aggregate Score: Dortmund 2-0 Up
ScoresFooty Prediction: Atalanta 4+ Goals

The Comeback Narrative

Dortmund’s away performance (2-0 at the Gewiss Stadium) was clinical and dominant. Atalanta need a 3-0 victory to progress. A 2-1 result advances Dortmund. Anything in between—1-1, 2-2, 3-2, 4-2—and Dortmund advance.

What Makes This Intriguing

Atalanta’s Gewiss Stadium is one of European football’s most intimidating atmospheres. Their high pressing, rapid transitions, and attacking intensity could theoretically produce a 3-0 or greater victory. But Dortmund’s 80/100 form entering the Round of 32 was elite.

The Data’s Perspective

Our prediction of Atalanta 4+ goals seems optimistic for a team needing 3 goals just to progress on aggregate. Yet it reflects the Gewiss’ intensity and Atalanta’s attacking capacity. Dortmund’s defensive vulnerability to rapid transitions (shown in their first-leg performance where they were somewhat fortunate) could be exposed at home.

The Likely Scenario

A 2-0 or 2-1 Atalanta victory feels most probable. That advances Dortmund 3-2 on aggregate. If Atalanta exceed 2 goals, Dortmund’s heartrate accelerates. If they score 3+, the narrative completely shifts and we reach extra time territory.

Most Likely Outcome: Atalanta 2-1 (Dortmund advance 3-2 on aggregate)
Dortmund Hold: Atalanta 1-0 or 1-1 (Dortmund advance 3-0 or 3-1)
The Upset: Atalanta 3-0 (Progress 3-2 on aggregate)

Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco

Parc des Princes, Paris – 20:00 UTC (TBD time)

First Leg: Monaco 2-3 Paris Saint-Germain (Away)
Aggregate Score: PSG 3-2 Up
ScoresFooty Prediction: 1-1 Draw

The Classic Rivalry Continues

PSG’s away victory (3-2 at Monaco) was dramatic and emotionally intense. They’ve got a one-goal aggregate advantage. Yet our model predicts a 1-1 draw at home—which would see PSG advance 4-3 on aggregate.

The Monaco Opportunity

Monaco need a 2-0 victory to progress on extra time avoidance (tie 4-4, extra time required). A 1-0 victory advances PSG. A 1-1 draw advances PSG. Only a 2-0+ victory gives Monaco progression without extra time/penalties.

The Data Interpretation

Our 1-1 prediction reflects Monaco’s away resilience and PSG’s controlled approach. The Parc des Princes is historically a fortress, but Monaco have proven capable of matching PSG intensity in this fixture.

The first leg’s drama (3-2 away) consumed emotional energy. Second legs often feature lower-intensity matches—teams play with caution after dramatic first legs.

What To Watch

If PSG establish early dominance, they’ll likely control the game and advance comfortably (1-0 or 2-0). If Monaco’s counter-attacking creates early chances, the match could tighten, and the predicted 1-1 becomes probable.

Most Likely Outcome: PSG 1-0 or 1-1 (Comfortable progression)
The Upset: Monaco 2-0 (Advance 4-4 on aggregate, progress via extra time/penalties)

Juventus vs Galatasaray

Allianz Stadium, Turin – 20:00 UTC (TBD time)

First Leg: Galatasaray 5-2 Juventus (Away)
Aggregate Score: Galatasaray 5-2 Up
ScoresFooty Prediction: 1-1 Draw

The Humiliation Revenge Narrative

Juventus were demolished 5-2 at the Rams Park. Our model predicts a 1-1 draw at home. Even a 1-1 would leave Galatasaray advancing 6-3 on aggregate.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Juventus’ first-leg collapse wasn’t mere tactical failure—it was defensive breakdown. A red card destabilized their structure, but the magnitude of defeat (5-2) suggests deeper issues.

Now, returning home, do they reset mentally? Do they regain composure?

The Data Reality

Our 1-1 prediction reflects Galatasaray’s likely approach: defensive, cautious, willing to accept away draws knowing they’ve already progressed mathematically. Juventus, conversely, will want to score aggressively to restore dignity.

A 1-1 draw would be morally important for Juventus—proving they’re not as bad as the first leg suggested. But it wouldn’t change the aggregate story.

Realistic Outcomes

Juventus 2-0: Gala 5, Juve 4 = 5-4 Gala (moral victory for Juventus, Gala still progress)
Juventus 2-1: Gala 6, Juve 4 = 6-4 Gala (Galatasaray still progress)
1-1 Draw: Predicted outcome, Galatasaray advance 6-3 on aggregate
Galatasaray 0-1 or 0-0: Galatasaray still advance even with a loss

The aggregate mathematics are so heavily in Galatasaray’s favor that second-leg competition feels secondary.

Most Likely Outcome: 1-1 Draw (Galatasaray advance 6-3 on aggregate)
Juventus Push: Juventus 2-0 (Galatasaray still advance 6-4, but Juventus show resilience)

Real Madrid vs Benfica

Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid – 20:00 UTC (TBD time)

First Leg: Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid (Away)
Aggregate Score: Madrid 1-0 Up
ScoresFooty Prediction: Madrid 1-0

The Efficient Away Victory Seeking Confirmation

Madrid’s away performance (1-0 at the Estádio da Luz) was clinical. They’ve got a one-goal aggregate advantage. Our model predicts another 1-0 victory at the Bernabéu, advancing them 2-0 on aggregate.

The Madrid Narrative

This is Madrid in their element: controlling away, returning home, finishing opponents efficiently. The Bernabéu is one of European football’s most intimidating atmospheres. Benfica’s primary challenge is surviving the intensity.

The Data Says

Madrid’s away resilience and home dominance are real statistical advantages. Their 80/100 form entering the Round of 32 persists. Benfica’s 60/100 form, while respectable, lacks the elite quality to overcome Madrid’s experience and technique.

The Benfica Path Forward

Benfica need a 2-0 victory to progress directly without extra time (tie 2-2 on aggregate requires extra time/penalties). A 1-0 Benfica victory ties the aggregate 1-1 (extra time/penalties required). A 0-0 draw advances Madrid 1-0 on aggregate.

Only a 2+ goal Benfica victory changes the narrative. Given Madrid’s defensive discipline, that’s statistically improbable.

The Likely Scenario

Madrid will control the Bernabéu with possession, structure, and patience. Benfica will defend deep, seek counter-attacking moments, and accept a narrow defeat that maintains aggregate dignity.

Most Likely Outcome: Madrid 1-0 (Progression 2-0 on aggregate)
Benfica Success: Benfica 1-0 (Madrid 1, Benfica 1 = 1-1 aggregate, extra time/penalties)
The Upset: Benfica 2-0 (Advance 2-1 on aggregate)

The Bigger Picture: Second-Leg Psychology

Teams With Comfort (Will Likely Advance)

Newcastle (6-1 up): Already through, question is intensity management
Leverkusen (2-0 up): Comfortable advantage, likely advances unless catastrophic collapse
Madrid (1-0 up): Away form + home Bernabéu = efficient progression likely
PSG (3-2 up): One-goal advantage at home, mathematically favorable

Teams In Genuine Danger (Upsets Possible)

Atlético (3-3, extra time required if drawn): Must win by 2+, home pressure could paralyze
Inter (3-1 down): Must overturn 2-goal deficit, Bodo/Glimt proved they can execute
Juventus (5-2 down): Humiliation requires revenge narrative, but aggregate mathematics insurmountable
Atalanta (2-0 down): Need 3+ goals to progress, possible but requires perfect execution

The Chaos Potential

Dortmund (2-0 away), Monaco (3-2 away), and Benfica (1-0 away) all hold advantages but not insurmountable ones. Second-leg momentum, emotional factors, and tactical adjustments could shift narratives.

Final Assessment

Seven predictions point toward first-leg winners progressing. One prediction (Atlético vs Brugge) carries genuine upset potential where a 3-3 aggregate tie creates fascinating extra-time tension.

The data suggests Newcastle and Leverkusen advance comfortably. Madrid advances efficiently. PSG advances with control. Inter advances in a close second leg. Dortmund, Juventus, and Atlético’s progressions carry varying degrees of uncertainty.

But here’s what we learned from the first legs: predictions capture patterns, form reveals tendencies, and statistics quantify likelihood. Yet football’s beauty lies in execution, momentum, and those ineffable moments where psychology matters more than pre-match analysis.

We’ll see which teams navigate second-leg pressure with composure. We’ll see which predictions hold. And we’ll see if the data’s predictions or football’s chaos wins the weekend.